Even if you have no interest in precious metals or investing, this concerns you. If you pay for a house that the bank owns, if you are employed, if you have children, if you use money at all.. this concerns you. Silver is the canary in the coal mine, the first proof that what I’ve been warning about for years is actually coming to pass.
But I thought you liked silver?
I do. In my first ever article, A Brief History of Money, I wrote that, in addition to gold obviously, “silver is money”, as opposed to the debased Government, Inc. currency tokens that They want you to believe are money. Then, in my article #silversqueeze and the trade of the century, I literally told everyone to buy silver, and in my article How to buy silver I told you how.
I also bought some silver around that time. And I just sold some now, at the absolute parabolic top on Jan 29th, just before the 40% crash. Take a look at this historical chart of silver prices:
Ooh look at the big trader man
Not really. In this case it was a combination of things:
- The chart looked parabolic
- I needed a little cash to spend on life things
- I was up like 500% even counting the huge margin on physical
- I didn’t sell it all
Why do I show you this? Many reasons. Firstly, I want to show you, visually and viscerally, that I’m invested in what I write about, literally as well as metaphorically, not just chattering for Likes. This matters to me. By contrast, I’m about break-even in the scorpion pit of leveraged trading; I’m not skilled enough at that yet.
I am, however, really very good at a small number of things: spotting patterns, constructing systems, and sticking with an uncomfortable idea long enough to find the truth. This means I’ve been able to make a number of predictions in my articles, parts of which are starting to come true now (even if I generally am a few years too early). Among other things, I predicted that:
- The Federal Reserve would not be able to raise interest rates much more and would be forced to lower them
- Currency debasement would therefore continue
- Gold, and especially silver, would show us this by front-running inflation
Which brings us to why high silver prices are a Bad Thing.
Muh number go up
Yes I made money from silver going above $100. Yes I hope to make more money from Apocalyptic Investing in the future. But this does not make me as happy as you might think, because I understand what it means, and in a minute so will you. Take a look at the chart again.
You can see that They were able to keep the precious metals price suppressed for almost half a century. It’s been proven in a court of law that criminal acts by banks were involved in doing this. As I’ve explained before, this massive project was absolutely necessary to preserve the integrity of the international fiat money system. Gold and silver must be kept down so that people continue to have faith in the dollar.
In the devastated aftermath of World War II, America strong-armed the rest of the world into a monetary system based on the dollar – which was convertible into, or “as good as”, gold. But they were still addicted to printing more dollars than there was gold. And when Nixon finally closed the gold window in 1971, gold ripped higher in price, gaining 2,000% in the next few years, an incredible amount for such a large market.
This was not simply “Ooh gold got more expensive”. It represented a catastrophic loss of confidence in fiat currency. It was not clear at the time that that confidence could be restored. Eventually, the Federal Reserve raised central interest rates to 20%, inflicting enormous pain on the plebs and crushing the US economy, in order to finally stop the run of inflation and transfer confidence back to the dollar. Systemic measures were put in place to control the price of precious metals and suppress the idea of their being a “safe haven” alternative to fiat.
From then on, the $50 price level for silver was the ceiling for 45 years. Until just now. At the end of 2025, silver blasted through it and then in just a couple of months doubled to break $100. Gold went up to $5,600 – more than double its price at the end of the post-Covid money printing.
This means the integrity of the international fiat money system is now toast. What I want to make clear is that this is not merely a temporary movement in the price of one commodity. It is a signal. Everyone who manages real money – or who merely understands markets – knows what the signal means. It means the fiat dollar, and all of its clone clown currencies around the world, have entered the end stage.
Buy low, sell high
Precious metals exchanges are now so busy that many have hired an extra telephone service to deal with enquiries and you have to wait for a week in order to speak with anyone who actually works in the office (ask me how I know). Unfortunately, the chances that this is because far-sighted retail investors are offloading some of their precious metals to take profit en masse are about as good as the chances of a biological woman in a USA Boxing match.
No, it’s rather that ordinary people are chasing price. They’re reacting to the huge move up that already happened and envisioning another 500% gain. While I guess that silver will probably reach $200+ this year (making a mockery of my pretty trade), that doesn’t change the fact that chasing parabolic moves is generally a terrible strategy.
The most well known psychological principle in trading is that markets run on greed and fear. The masses are afraid of large dips and attracted to parabolic runs (they don’t even notice quiet markets, which are the absolute best to accumulate). As such, they do the opposite of what they should: they buy high and sell low.
I mention this because I predict that different markets will each go on their own crazy volatile runs up this year and crash one after another and some of them will recover and others will not, ever. You must be prepared to ignore them or to navigate them appropriately. Do not get your head smashed in. Do not buy high and sell low.
Famously, such a great intellect as Sir Isaac Newton himself lost millions (in today’s money) chasing a parabolic run up in the South Sea Bubble.
Now, what could compel even the most intelligent of us to behave this way?
Narratives
It’s not that all news is fake. Even the truth, released at the right time, can tip opinions, markets, and events in the desired direction.
Finance news is riddled with this kind of fake truth. If you and your billionaire friends want to buy huge amounts of something at a cheap price, the one thing you absolutely need is a huge number of sellers to sell it to you willingly, otherwise your buys would move the market (which would make your trade less profitable or impossible). The really profitable techniques, then, are not so much technical as psychological.
You must use some fraction of your expected profits in advance to pay the corporate media to seed stories that make the masses afraid. They will sell their Bitcoin, or gold, or whatever, to you eagerly, and accept a low price for doing so. As we approach the top you spread stories that make people confident and happy. They expect even more success, and for tomorrow to resemble today. They keep buying – from you. When the buyers are exhausted and there is no-one left to buy (smart money has all sold), you drop a bad headline and the price crashes without mercy. People become afraid, and sell their stuff back to you at the bottom. Rinse and repeat. It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.
When silver was running up hard, the narrative was that precious metals are an inflation hedge (other narratives included physical metal shortage, COMEX runs, etc). That truth was amplified and weaponised to get everyone to keep buying at a rate that was unsustainable. Mathematically, someone has to take the other side of those trades. I’d wager the commercial banks – the usual suspects – loaded up short. Then would you look at that, just at the right time news broke that a hawkish Fed chair was chosen, and price collapsed.
When Bitcoin was below $20k in November 2022, the terrible news that forced the last remaining ordinary people to give up and sell their crypto, if they could, was the collapse of FTX. I remember it well, because I lost my trading funds on there. But those weeks, when all the news was as bad as possible, marked the absolute bottom. The big guys all bought there, in massive size. Do you see how it works? When Bitcoin reaches $300k, or whatever, this cycle, there will be some amazing news, perhaps a big beautiful sovereign wealth fund in crypto, and a glittering narrative, like “Bitcoin is the true store of value” and mark my words, the very best news, whatever it is, will coincidentally happen shortly before the absolute raging top, to allow the same big boys to sell the last of what they bought at $16k. Retail traders’ emotions will keep them in the market and take them over the edge.
This happens in all markets, all the time. Traders, especially crypto traders, already know this, but for my normie friends, remember this as if your future depends on it because it does:
The Meltup has started
Remember I was talking about the Meltup? All markets must be run up so the Elites can sell their overpriced, unreal, vulnerable assets as high as possible, in order to extract the maximum money from the cattle classes. You might not have noticed, but the FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, Australia 200, and many other international stock indexes are at all-time highs already. Is London in an all-time great condition right now? Is Japan? Australia? Current valuations are nothing to do with the real world – prices are moved higher. These excessive upside conditions will only steepen and spread. Where silver and gold are today, US stocks, tech, and Bitcoin will follow. And beyond. To heights that make even their biggest fans lose their minds.
The Meltup has started, and the parabolic move in precious metals shows it. The starting gun has been fired. This is why $100 silver is a Bad Thing.
In the very beginning of the Weimar hyperinflation, or the Banque Royale hyperinflation, and even through the Roaring Twenties that created the conditions for the Great Depression, people felt rich. Their investments were – at least in nominal terms – going up hella fast. People took on risk, and debt, and leverage, to try and take advantage of this. Dear reader, please don’t do the same. Speculate by all means, try and make money with some percentage of your disposable assets, but be smart. Remember that the game is not made for you to win. You have no idea who you’re playing against.
The Deleveraging is inevitable
What do you care if the markets crash? Maybe you don’t own Bitcoin, or do any trading. But you probably have a pension. If you’re lucky you have an ISA or 401K or some kind of stock account. And even if you don’t own stocks and bonds, your bank does. They have already gambled your “money” ten times over on these same things because that’s how fractional reserve banking works. If those investments disappear, so does your money.
All banks, all insurance companies, Fortune 500 companies, hedge funds, money market funds, cities, states, and governments are in debt or leveraged or both. Many of them will get much more leveraged during the Meltup. A market crash in these conditions – and a crash always follows a parabolic run – is not merely inconvenient, it is fatal. As I explain in A brief history of investment banks, the financial system is uniquely vulnerable to a systemic shock. Such a level of debt cannot just get unwound.
Read up on the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and on the Great Depression and you will quickly realise that we now have the conditions for both of these crises together at the same time: predatory fictional-reserve banking, massive debt, rehypothecation, currency debasement, hyper-financialisation and especially sky-high leverage.
Global Financial Crisis * Great Depression = Great Deleveraging.
Previous remedies are unavailable to us now. In 1929 many people grew their own food, the majority owned their houses outright, and paper money was still convertible into gold. In 2008 there was still room to print money to kick the problem down the road – now there is not. And unlike in 1980, they cannot raise interest rates to 20% to kill inflation – and if they do, it will kill everything else.
This combination of causes, conditions, and lack of a cure makes for a once-in-a-century size event. If all of the fake money collapses, very little will be left. Only those things whose worth does not depend on a price tag will survive – relationships, knowledge, and commodities (intrinsic value).
People who have their entire net worth in financial products will not be able to recover.
Monetise the narrative
Don’t let it monetise you. Yes, silver and gold are inflation hedges and safe haven assets and commodities with intrinsic value, but they will not escape the Deleveraging.
Let me say that again. Gold and silver will not escape the Everything Crash. At least, not at first.
Precious metals have one more wave up to go. And when stocks crash and crypto crashes that wave will extend. Everyone will see this and shout that this proves they are the True Safe Haven. People will sell what’s left of their portfolio and pump it into gold and silver, which might even reach their full “fair price” targets of $300 silver and $10,000 gold.
Don’t think They haven’t thought of this.
Gold and silver will have their own crash, all the more brutal for having been delayed.
When everything is destroyed, what happens then? It’s hard to say, but there will be some form of monetary reset, or competing monetary resets. CBDCs in the West. Maybe gold-backed currency in the East. The major feature of the next decade will be inflation, even hyper-stagflation. In such an environment, commodities will outperform (stocks in other sectors may never recover). Gold and especially silver will rise again, more quickly than other commodities, and keep rising.
But the narrative. Oh, the sentiment. It will be “over”. No-one will want to invest in anything. Ordinary people will have bought the top, sold the bottom, and have nothing, perhaps not even a bank account, to buy anything with.
Remember: this most recent mini-crash in silver went down 40% in a single day. When this is accompanied by genuine panic, perhaps grid failure, cyberattack, maybe war, maybe “aliens”, you will not be able to calmly trade in and out of such volatile moves even if you had the skill.
This and worse will be done unto you, and the media will be the weapon and the cover, Their shield and Their sword.
At the moment you feel compelled to go “all-in”, to stay in the market forever, when it’s too painful to take profit, and too much trouble to move some percentage of your net worth outside the banking system – when all the news is good – my hope is that a small voice reminds you:
Global Deleveraging.
Once-in-a-Century.
Financially Unrecoverable Event.
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